Friday, January 14, 2011

Infosys stock

I was looking at Infy's financials to see how much is it worth.
The five year CAGR in profits is 21% and revenue CAGR is 19%.
Suppose we assume that this can be maintained for another 5 years, slows to 15% after that.
I assumed a discount rate of 15%
At a perpetual growth of 5%, the fair value is 2332 per share
Perpetual growth of 10%, the fair value is 3500 per share

PEG of 1 implies 21 PE and at EPS of 109 price is Rs. 2289

In either case, current price of 3200 seems overvalued.

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